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amitisinvestingSep 8, 2025

So once again, someone explain to me how exactly AI capex is all a bubble? $NBIS got a $20B deal for 5 years. Their market-cap was $15B at end of day. Microsoft, a hyperscaler, already is spending massive amounts on capex. The AI bears will tell you the entire capex lifecycle is done and peaked because $NVDA is down $10 after earnings, as if a company never fell after earnings. Then Nadella whips out $20B after hours for more datacenter/cloud/compute buildout… Zucks is ready to “conservatively” spend $600B on capex by the end of 2028. Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Google are expected to spend $465 billion on capex in 2026, up 21% YoY. What are we talking about? How can someone reasonably say it’s all a bubble? At this point it feels like people wanting to just say AI is pointless for the sake of saying it to “call the top” vs actually analyzing the rate of growth, spend, and ROI that we are seeing from AI. $AMZN $META $MSFT $GOOGL

amit𝕏

past 12 months+12.3%S&P 500 +16.0%
Live since Sep 25+1.8%S&P 500 −0.5%
  • NVIDIANVDA40%
  • MicrosoftMSFT30%
  • Amazon.comAMZN30%
Get it · from $10Buy this basket: The capex is already contracted. The supplier is paid first.

Theses Naval Enterprise AI Trust

What Thesis built from it

Nobody knows who is liable for AI. That is the moat.

Enterprise AI Trust · 3 companies

  1. 34%

    MicrosoftMicrosoftEnterprise trust

    Microsoft has explicitly offered conditional copyright protection for eligible commercial AI customers. The bet is that established procurement relationships help turn that reassurance into paid adoption.

  2. 33%

    AlphabetAlphabetModel + platform

    Google has offered protection covering training-data and generated-output IP claims for specified services. Owning models and the cloud platform gives it more than one place to sell enterprise AI.

  3. 33%

    Amazon.comAmazon.comRisk controls

    Amazon Bedrock offers configurable guardrails for model inputs and outputs. The bet is that enterprises buy managed controls through an existing AWS relationship rather than assemble everything themselves.

+17.2% past 12 months+1.9% live since Sep 25

The full case

The other side

The companies with the deepest pockets may become the biggest targets. Paying for claims and safeguards can cost more than the customers they attract. Copyright protection does not answer Naval's question about injury or death. And buying three huge companies is an imprecise way to trade one issue: advertising, retail, capital spending and valuation could overwhelm any benefit from enterprise trust.

What would change the call: At the next two quarterly earnings reviews, look for evidence that customers choose smaller AI vendors despite liability concerns, or that legal and safety costs outgrow the revenue attributed to enterprise AI. If neither side provides measurable evidence, keep the causal thesis unproven even if this basket beats the market.

Naval said it; Thesis built the basket. Not an endorsement by Naval.

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