PACK NO. 07
Big enough to blame
The three clouds big enough to carry AI's risk.
MicrosoftMicrosoftMSFT · 34%
AlphabetAlphabetGOOGL · 33%
Amazon.comAmazon.comAMZN · 33%
Interest down 14% this week117k Wikipedia reads about these companies
Tokenized stocks that track the real share price, bought into your own wallet. They can lose value.
Where the idea came from
On the way to killing all of us, AI will likely kill some of us. In that case, who’s liable?
Their post started this thesis. They didn’t pick these holdings, and they aren’t endorsing the pack.
The idea
Nobody knows who is liable for AI. That is the moat.
Naval asked who is liable when AI causes harm. Nobody has answered, and unanswered liability is a reason to buy from whoever is large enough to absorb it.
Why these three
- Microsoft
MicrosoftEnterprise trust · 34%
Microsoft has explicitly offered conditional copyright protection for eligible commercial AI customers. The bet is that established procurement relationships help turn that reassurance into paid adoption.
- Alphabet
AlphabetModel + platform · 33%
Google has offered protection covering training-data and generated-output IP claims for specified services. Owning models and the cloud platform gives it more than one place to sell enterprise AI.
- Amazon.com
Amazon.comRisk controls · 33%
Amazon Bedrock offers configurable guardrails for model inputs and outputs. The bet is that enterprises buy managed controls through an existing AWS relationship rather than assemble everything themselves.
The other side
The companies with the deepest pockets may become the biggest targets. Paying for claims and safeguards can cost more than the customers they attract. Copyright protection does not answer Naval's question about injury or death. And buying three huge companies is an imprecise way to trade one issue: advertising, retail, capital spending and valuation could overwhelm any benefit from enterprise trust.
What would change the call
At the next two quarterly earnings reviews, look for evidence that customers choose smaller AI vendors despite liability concerns, or that legal and safety costs outgrow the revenue attributed to enterprise AI. If neither side provides measurable evidence, keep the causal thesis unproven even if this basket beats the market.
Record: these holdings at these weights, held from Sep 30, 2025 to Sep 29, 2026, from daily closing prices, before fees. “Live” is the thesis’s public record since its call opened on Sep 25, 2026. “Interest” is human page views of each company’s English Wikipedia article, the last 7 days against the 7 before. Past performance isn’t a promise.
Sources and version history