PACK NO. 01
The AI optimist
The chips and clouds every AI app rents.
NVIDIANVIDIANVDA · 40%
MicrosoftMicrosoftMSFT · 30%
Amazon.comAmazon.comAMZN · 30%
Interest down 12% this week137k Wikipedia reads about these companies
Tokenized stocks that track the real share price, bought into your own wallet. They can lose value.
Where the idea came from
So once again, someone explain to me how exactly AI capex is all a bubble? $NBIS got a $20B deal for 5 years. Their market-cap was $15B at end of day. Microsoft, a hyperscaler, already is spending massive amounts on capex. …
Their post started this thesis. They didn’t pick these holdings, and they aren’t endorsing the pack.
The idea
The capex is already contracted. The supplier is paid first.
Multi-year datacenter commitments are signed long before the revenue they are meant to produce arrives. The cash reaches whoever sells the capacity well before it reaches the buyer's earnings.
Why these three
- NVIDIA
NVIDIAThe supplier · 40%
The largest single recipient of committed datacenter spending, and so the clearest expression of a claim about who is paid first.
- Microsoft
MicrosoftSpender and reseller · 30%
Sits on both sides: it commits the capex and rents the resulting capacity out, which makes it a partial hedge against the supplier leg rather than a second copy of it.
- Amazon.com
Amazon.comThe other buyer · 30%
The second large committed buyer named in the post, and the one whose earnings are least dominated by AI, which stops the basket being one bet expressed three times.
The other side
Being paid first is not the same as being paid durably. Contracted orders can be renegotiated, delayed, or filled by a competitor, and a supplier priced for permanent scarcity is priced for a cycle that has always ended. If the buyers conclude the returns are not there, the next round of contracts simply is not signed.
What would change the call
Two consecutive quarters in which a major hyperscaler guides capex down, or a large contracted order is publicly cancelled or repriced.
Record: these holdings at these weights, held from Sep 30, 2025 to Sep 29, 2026, from daily closing prices, before fees. “Live” is the thesis’s public record since its call opened on Sep 25, 2026. “Interest” is human page views of each company’s English Wikipedia article, the last 7 days against the 7 before. Past performance isn’t a promise.
Sources and version history