The toll booths outlast the traffic.
Whoever charges per transaction earns whether the trade was clever or stupid. The chain takes a fee, the router takes a fee, the pool takes a fee — and none of them need the trader to be right.
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The time-bound call
Fixed at publicationThis basket will outperform the S&P 500 over 90 days.
- Started
- Deadline
- Last updated
How the call is scored
A fixed model basket versus SPYx, each initially quoted from $150 USDC. The original raw token quantities never rebalance. Returns compare their USDC sell quotes with the starting sell quotes. The call succeeds only if the basket's return is strictly higher. Equal returns are a tie. Resolution uses the first complete quote observation started on or after the deadline, within 48 hours. If that window has no valid observation, the result is unresolved. Quotes include route price impact but exclude wallet execution and network costs. These are model returns, not your investment results.
Prices come from live Jupiter quotes and refresh once a day. A price that looks unreliable is skipped rather than guessed.
The deadline only scores the idea. It never sells your holdings and pays no prize. A new version of the thesis starts a new call.
Quote source: Jupiter ↗The argument
Why this idea. Why these businesses.
This is a bet on activity rather than on direction. Solana's network revenue is the sum of base fees, priority fees and tips, and it is collected on every transaction regardless of outcome; the router and the pool sit on the same flow and charge again. Holding the chain, the aggregator and an automated market maker is an attempt to own the toll at three points along one road.
Inside the basket
- 50%
Solana
Every transaction pays it, and unlike the other two it cannot be switched away from without leaving entirely. No mint or freeze authority, so there is nothing to disclose beyond market risk.
The tradeoff. Its fee rules are set by governance and are under active discussion, so the toll is not fixed. Most of its price behaviour has nothing to do with fee revenue.
About this tokenized stock
Underlying: SOL. Issuer: Solana. No mint or freeze authority. Market risk only.
- 30%
Jupiter
Sits in front of the pools and sees the order flow before they do, which is the most defensible position on the road if habits are sticky.
The tradeoff. Routing has close to zero switching cost. The position is defensible only for as long as it is the best price, and the token's link to routing revenue is indirect.
About this tokenized stock
Underlying: JUP. Issuer: Jupiter. No mint or freeze authority. Market risk only.
- 20%
Raydium
Where the trade is actually filled, and among the largest venues by volume on this chain.
The tradeoff. The most commoditised leg: liquidity moves to whichever venue pays for it, and the fee it earns is the first thing a competitor undercuts.
About this tokenized stock
Underlying: RAY. Issuer: Raydium. No mint or freeze authority. Market risk only.
Why these weights. Weighted to the chain, because it is the only one of the three that cannot be routed around.
The strongest case against
Fees are the most competitive thing in this industry and the direction of travel is downward: record transaction volume has already coincided with flat-to-falling network revenue, which is fee compression doing exactly what it does. Routing has no switching cost, a cheaper aggregator takes the flow in a week, and the fee rules themselves are governed and can be changed by vote. Owning three tolls on one road is also three ways to be wrong about the same road.
What would change the thesis?
Another quarter of rising transactions with falling network revenue would show the tolls are being competed away faster than the traffic grows.
Read the evidence. Make up your mind.
Sources supporting the idea, including the ones that challenge it.
- Solana financials: REV, operator payments, token holder income (opens in a new tab)
Blockworks
Defines Real Economic Value as in-protocol fees plus out-of-protocol tips, broken into vote, base and priority fees and Jito tips. The measurement the basket reasons from. Blockworks notes token holder returns differ between stakers and non-stakers, so holding the token is not the same as receiving the fees.
- Solana's base-fee rule and what it changes (opens in a new tab)
Crypto Daily
Describes a resource-based base fee under discussion as SIMD-547, replacing the flat per-signature charge. Explicitly not enacted and with no firm vote date. The direct case against the thesis: the toll is set by governance and can be changed, so fee revenue is not a fixed property of the road.
Updates and version history
An update appends dated evidence to this argument. A new version changes the argument or the allocation itself. Neither one touches a position you already hold.
No updates since publication. When the author adds one, it appears here with its date and its sources — it never changes what is written above.
- Version 1
666deed94eCurrent
Written by the Thesis team. The team holds no position in these companies or their tokenized shares, and is paid nothing by any of them.
Tracking begins at publication. This thesis has no established performance history. Tokenized stocks carry issuer and market risk.